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DaiLothbrook

Predictions823

Comments214

Member SinceDecember 2025

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by DaiLothbrook

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24 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

%chance

201 forecasters

What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?

Negotiated De-escalation

3.2%

Russian Advance

13.2%

Ukrainian Advance

3.3%

Continued Stalemate

80.4%

162 forecasters

Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?

75%chance

5% this week

This question is closed for forecasting.

Key Factors

Hochul's potential veto could delay moratorium
techxplore.com:
New York state legislature passes one-year data center moratorium
Timing risk if Delaware governor delays action

44 forecasters

Will the United States and Iran hold another face-to-face diplomatic meeting before June 6, 2026?

resultNo

14 forecasters

Will the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close above 30 on more than 5 trading days between April 20, 2026 and May 31, 2026?

resultNo