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tejvn
Predictions
3832
Comments
116
Member Since
December 2025
occupation
Data Science Major @ UC Berkeley
links
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by tejvn
6 comments
40 forecasters
By how many points will Kiko Llaneras beat the Community Prediction in the 2026 Fall Metaculus Cup?
Current estimate
Revealed
next week
1 comment
13 forecasters
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?
70%
chance
1 comment
14 forecasters
How many US states will there be in 2050?
<50
1.1%
50
74.6%
51
18.2%
52
5.1%
>52
1%
9 comments
110 forecasters
What will be the total OpenRouter token usage December 21-27, 2026?
Current estimate
293T tokens
Key Factors
Rapid scaling of OpenRouter usage
Instability in growth rate factors
openrouter.ai:
The Token State of Play - Inferred
1 comment
11 forecasters
Will a SHA-256 Collision or Preimage be Publicly Demonstrated before 2050?
40%
chance
18 comments
160 forecasters
What will SpaceX's stock price be at the end of August 2026?
community
135 $
result
143.69 $
8 comments
110 forecasters
Will the Brookmont Catastrophic Bond ETF drop at least $0.25 within two days before September 2026?
result
No
9 comments
128 forecasters
Will Instructure be subject to another major hack before September 1, 2026?
result
No
13 comments
102 forecasters
How many WSOP bracelets will the 2026 Main Event winner hold at the end of the 2026 WSOP season?
community
1.33 bracelets
result
1 bracelets
21 comments
105 forecasters
How many building permits will California issue in March through May 2026?
community
27.4k Building Permits
result
27.049k Building Permits
1 comment
33 forecasters
Will Claude Code remain available to new Claude Pro subscribers through 2026?
95%
chance
2%
this week
7 comments
7 forecasters
What proportion of SCOTUS decisions issued in Q2 2026 will be authored by a Democrat-appointed Justice?
community
0.267
result
0.2368
2 comments
8 forecasters
What will be the mean of the top 10 scores on the Metaculus 2026 Peer Accuracy leaderboard?
Current estimate
41 points
3 comments
13 forecasters
Will atomic chess be solved by 2100, and if so, what result?
Win for White
50.4%
Draw
21.2%
Win for Black
2.1%
No Proof by 2100
26.3%
4 comments
11 forecasters
Will Polymarket "Holding Rewards" rate fall below 4% before 2028?
result
Yes
3 comments
13 forecasters
How many barrels of crude oil will be in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve on April 30, 2026?
community
388M Barrels
result
397.9M Barrels