Profile
Save
Username
Formerly Known As
Member Since
- September 23, 2015
Bio
Website
{{err}}
{{"metaculusSupporterHeading" | translate}}
{{"supporterSinceHeading" | translate}}
- {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}
{{"changeUsernameHeading" | translate}}
{{"tachyonsCost" | translate:({tachyons: user.username_change_cost})}}
{{"changeUsernameDescription" | translate}}
{{"changeUsernameDescriptionNewUser" | translate}}
Forecaster Stats
Level
∞ (Admin)
Predictions
774 predictions on 427 questions (347 resolved)
Comments
2998 comments on 908 questions
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Autocrat Public Figures Series
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- 🔰 2022Q4 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- 🔰 Beginner Tournament 🔰
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
30458 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Computing – Artificial Intelligence (45)
- Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning (39)
- Technological Advances (37)
- Finance — Cryptocurrencies (30)
- Series – AI milestones (29)
Popular Questions
- Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei? (3109 forecasts)
- When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (2333 forecasts)
- Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)? (2106 forecasts)
- Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040? (2000 forecasts)
- Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150? (1383 forecasts)