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Anthony
Predictions
790
Comments
3089
Member Since
September 2015
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Track Record
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Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Anthony
A Primer on the Metaculus Scoring Rule
1
0
comments
18
comments
18
forecasters
When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?
Current estimate
19 May 2029
11
comments
45
forecasters
How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?
Current estimate
8.5×10¹⁵ km
10
comments
18
forecasters
When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?
Current estimate
Dec 2045
20
comments
35
forecasters
When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?
community
>22 Dec 2025
result
18 Dec 2021
Metaculus capabilities list (obsolete)
7
0
comments
Prediction microteaming discussion
4
2
2
comments
Metaculus Meta
Metaculus Staffing News
14
4
4
comments
Metaculus Meta
6
comments
54
forecasters
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?
Ambiguous
88
comments
362
forecasters
Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?
result
No
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