47 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Critical

High

High18 Jun 2029

CriticalFeb 2032

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 1, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2041

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2041