95.305 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Binary |
84.852 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
82.756 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
78.406 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024? | Binary |
75.047 | Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
73.944 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
70.032 | How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023? | Continuous |
65.625 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Binary |
63.428 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023? | Binary |
62.532 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Binary |
58.650 | Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th? | Binary |
58.543 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | Binary |
53.380 | Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023? | Binary |
52.266 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
51.301 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | Binary |
47.929 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Binary |
46.951 | How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy? | Continuous |
44.530 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
42.397 | Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023? | Binary |
41.771 | Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
37.522 | Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023? | Binary |
34.587 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
33.147 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
31.218 | Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself? | Binary |
30.142 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
26.000 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.993 | How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023? | Continuous |
19.933 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
19.318 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
18.950 | Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
17.012 | Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
10.352 | Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023? | Binary |
6.275 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
6.255 | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | Binary |
4.321 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.443 | Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended? | Binary |
-0.397 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Binary |
-0.665 | Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.208 | Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
-3.109 | Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012? | Binary |
-4.016 | Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship? | Binary |
-4.488 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-4.564 | Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
-7.346 | Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case? | Binary |
-10.841 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | Binary |
-14.306 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-20.673 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
-46.293 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? | Binary |
-53.664 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
-89.225 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |
-154.730 | Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |