Slurp

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.221	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
63.968	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
34.051	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
25.790	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
21.081	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
20.800	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
20.668	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.887	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
13.043	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
12.997	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
11.630	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
11.626	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
11.141	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
10.365	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
10.311	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.673	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
9.093	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
8.519	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.166	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
7.377	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.785	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
6.498	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.789	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
5.478	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
4.546	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.459	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
3.353	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
3.297	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.102	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
0.047	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-0.475	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-2.394	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
-6.893	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-15.467	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
-16.972	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-37.495	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary