Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
33
227
forecasters
14
33 comments
227 forecasters
ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
3 more...
In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?
Follow
share
embed
Resolved
No
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (33)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
35 comments
193 forecasters
No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations before 2035
74.1%
chance
0 comments
24 forecasters
First Detonation by 2050 Inadvertent
21.8%
chance
0 comments
31 forecasters
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation before the following years?
2027
2%
2028
3%
2030
5%
7 comments
27 forecasters
Date of First Nuclear Detonation
Current estimate
Feb 2046
1 comment
21 forecasters
First detonation accidental/unauthorized?
10%
chance
0 comments
134 forecasters
Non-Test Nuclear Detonation in Iran Before 2027?
1%
chance
5 comments
47 forecasters
Number of Nuclear Detonations by 2050
over 100
39%
over 1,000
9%
2 comments
64 forecasters
Fatal Non-state Nuclear Detonation by 2030
1%
chance