BoringCrab

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.715	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
55.053	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
40.724	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
40.390	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.824	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
26.851	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
23.556	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.547	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.929	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.535	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
14.101	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.597	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
13.277	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
11.088	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.190	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.963	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
9.070	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
9.061	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
6.655	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
6.626	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
5.566	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.078	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.839	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.080	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.126	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
2.457	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.726	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.820	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.231	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.120	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.091	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.067	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.046	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.017	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.016	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.013	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
-3.730	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary