97.977 | Will Tesla go out of business before 2019? | Binary |
96.887 | By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today? | Binary |
95.580 | Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020? | Binary |
91.472 | By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China? | Binary |
84.613 | Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019? | Binary |
82.180 | Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018? | Binary |
79.791 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity? | Binary |
73.660 | Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? | Binary |
73.384 | Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019? | Binary |
66.285 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents? | Binary |
63.406 | Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018? | Binary |
57.514 | Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C? | Binary |
56.013 | By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes? | Binary |
55.165 | A medical pathway to complete painlessness? | Binary |
54.462 | Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018? | Binary |
49.652 | Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018? | Binary |
48.462 | A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021? | Binary |
44.507 | What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018? | Continuous |
44.151 | Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018? | Binary |
37.282 | By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term? | Binary |
37.176 | How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year? | Continuous |
35.691 | Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018? | Binary |
28.771 | Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019? | Binary |
23.833 | Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021? | Binary |
20.235 | Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018? | Binary |
19.000 | Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018? | Binary |
11.135 | Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018? | Binary |
10.787 | First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018? | Binary |
8.348 | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election? | Binary |
0.186 | 1 million European electric vehicles: when? | Continuous |
-11.256 | Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020? | Binary |
-11.580 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance? | Binary |
-23.322 | A surge in large earthquakes in 2018? | Binary |
-75.349 | Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020? | Binary |
-108.421 | Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020? | Binary |
-114.422 | Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018? | Binary |
-137.358 | Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people? | Binary |
-165.971 | Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020? | Binary |
-256.956 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M? | Binary |