bzial

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3026	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
152.666	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
139.092	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
109.878	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
109.059	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
107.596	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
106.164	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
104.819	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
103.294	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
102.986	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
99.269	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
95.802	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
95.742	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
94.879	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
94.047	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
92.405	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
91.940	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
91.243	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
91.236	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
91.139	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
89.812	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
86.727	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
85.206	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
84.540	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
84.254	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
84.063	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
83.650	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
83.396	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
83.335	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
83.178	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
82.314	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
79.957	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
78.699	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
78.334	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
78.167	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
77.949	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
77.804	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
77.418	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
76.979	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
76.728	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
76.568	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
75.302	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
73.344	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
72.709	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
72.172	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
70.734	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
70.084	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
69.930	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
69.682	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
68.242	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
67.741	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
67.305	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
66.770	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
66.722	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
66.539	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
64.561	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
64.334	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
63.332	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
61.591	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
59.251	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
58.015	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
56.013	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
55.254	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
53.388	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
52.007	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
51.933	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
49.075	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
48.647	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
48.215	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
48.180	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
48.084	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
47.503	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
44.563	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
44.396	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
43.905	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
42.991	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
41.608	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
36.704	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
33.951	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
33.798	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
32.990	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
32.118	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
31.126	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
31.119	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
28.892	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
28.324	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
25.740	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
23.819	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
21.184	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
20.131	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
15.744	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
14.265	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
10.497	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
8.894	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
8.679	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
8.413	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
8.160	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
7.479	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
6.562	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
5.846	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
4.679	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
4.647	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
4.490	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
3.574	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
2.883	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
1.157	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
0.735	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
0.209	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
-0.071	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
-1.068	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-1.963	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
-2.540	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-4.800	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
-5.200	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
-5.668	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
-7.735	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-8.920	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-12.065	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-13.296	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
-14.731	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-19.261	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-19.921	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
-20.399	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-25.342	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
-30.604	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
-31.348	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-31.435	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
-31.594	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-32.152	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-32.749	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-37.347	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
-38.570	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
-40.814	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
-42.430	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-44.873	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-49.118	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-70.089	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
-70.588	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-86.290	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-94.340	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
-99.363	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
-102.031	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
-111.277	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
-121.849	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-135.708	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-137.739	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
-138.156	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-149.142	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-157.730	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-174.490	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-192.550	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-200.058	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-200.111	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
-202.314	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-227.167	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous