bzial

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2907	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
104.792	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
98.544	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
98.178	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
97.639	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
97.634	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
95.801	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
92.558	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
91.571	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
90.877	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
90.040	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
89.412	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
88.831	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
87.369	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
87.275	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
85.185	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
84.859	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
84.769	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
84.742	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
84.542	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
84.125	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
84.113	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
83.843	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
83.390	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
81.880	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
81.482	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
79.781	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
77.243	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
76.539	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
76.173	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
75.888	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
75.099	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
74.928	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
73.280	Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?	Binary
72.083	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
69.099	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
68.853	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
67.859	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
67.740	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
67.715	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
67.637	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
67.599	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
67.505	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
67.488	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
67.347	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
67.270	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
66.997	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
66.346	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
66.214	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
63.509	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
60.460	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
60.310	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
58.850	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
58.360	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
57.943	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
57.256	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
57.230	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
57.217	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
56.042	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
55.593	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
55.070	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
54.264	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
53.650	Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?	Binary
51.237	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
50.732	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
49.538	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
49.384	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
48.482	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
48.268	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
47.848	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
46.948	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
46.735	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
46.529	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
45.575	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
43.631	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
43.214	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
42.148	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
39.288	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
38.286	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
38.078	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
35.611	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
34.789	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
31.642	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
30.991	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
29.914	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
28.906	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
26.465	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
25.469	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
25.208	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
24.068	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
23.673	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
21.922	Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?	Binary
20.797	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
19.945	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
17.079	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
16.635	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
14.682	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
12.709	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
12.635	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
12.310	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
12.243	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
9.775	50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?	Binary
8.908	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
8.450	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
7.365	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
7.359	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
7.184	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
2.804	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
2.115	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
-1.560	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
-2.027	Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?	Binary
-2.957	To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?	Binary
-4.247	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
-9.945	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-14.949	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-17.654	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-21.171	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
-22.417	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-30.715	by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?	Binary
-31.507	Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?	Binary
-32.191	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
-36.543	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
-53.854	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-54.194	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-55.731	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-56.196	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
-70.235	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-72.091	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-73.547	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
-73.707	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-89.143	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-91.485	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
-91.721	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-94.175	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-94.397	Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
-106.507	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
-131.526	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
-173.378	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
-175.404	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-183.560	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-216.622	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-226.467	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-324.841	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-329.951	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary