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User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.384k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
93.358	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
92.279	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
86.726	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
79.868	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
77.528	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
75.890	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
73.190	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
72.963	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
71.478	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
71.364	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
70.770	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
67.801	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
64.800	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
63.987	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
63.835	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
60.862	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
59.891	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
57.932	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
55.951	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
55.209	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
54.695	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
53.917	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
50.958	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
50.845	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
47.890	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
46.206	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
45.145	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
44.213	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
38.480	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
38.191	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
38.064	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
37.531	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
37.274	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
36.807	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
35.982	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
34.410	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
33.833	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
14.746	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
12.022	Airships by 2019?	Binary
4.381	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
0.032	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
0.020	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-0.501	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
-10.531	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-11.102	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-52.272	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
-52.896	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
-59.840	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-60.160	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-76.333	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-78.537	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
-86.563	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
-92.793	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-205.434	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary