John

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

766.1	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
85.463	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
67.215	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
65.752	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
64.085	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
62.895	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
60.338	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
50.189	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
48.162	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
44.140	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
42.642	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
38.087	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
37.838	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
34.720	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
34.699	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
33.740	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
27.766	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
24.332	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
23.578	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
23.059	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
14.161	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
14.137	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
13.466	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
10.440	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
10.137	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
8.078	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
7.980	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
3.798	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
3.758	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
2.072	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
1.442	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
1.396	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
0.041	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-0.177	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
-8.639	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
-9.986	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-19.651	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
-20.613	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-66.368	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-68.087	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous