okrick

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

420	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
75.354	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
65.828	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
61.222	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
57.631	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
52.021	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
48.554	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
35.505	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
32.431	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
23.244	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
22.059	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
21.982	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
21.917	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
19.653	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
18.850	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
16.584	Airships by 2019?	Binary
16.534	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
12.969	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
11.047	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
7.130	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
7.012	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
-	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
-	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
-	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
-	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
-0.799	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
-4.922	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
-10.644	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-11.681	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-31.383	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-46.498	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
-49.734	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
-51.851	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary