Mattperson

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

366.3	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.436	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
97.333	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
93.537	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
90.726	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
80.403	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
79.402	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
70.714	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
70.713	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
68.384	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
62.089	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
62.024	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
61.903	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
61.333	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
57.589	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
55.242	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
54.768	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
53.213	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
51.791	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
50.456	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
49.376	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
45.314	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
44.075	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
33.349	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
32.057	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
29.816	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
28.704	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
27.059	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
23.408	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
21.979	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
21.596	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
19.186	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
13.749	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
5.544	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
4.174	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
2.279	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
0.410	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
0.074	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
-	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
-17.288	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
-17.943	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
-65.710	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-77.921	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-137.054	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
-173.088	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-190.532	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-291.382	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-384.003	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary