Bernhard

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

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7770	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
184.947	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
147.262	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
141.670	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
138.830	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
133.624	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
132.101	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
129.954	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
128.414	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
128.306	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
122.576	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
112.224	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
110.867	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
110.688	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
110.552	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
109.694	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
107.409	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
106.041	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
100.365	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
98.497	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
98.405	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
98.158	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
95.631	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
95.148	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
93.225	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
92.173	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
91.854	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
91.437	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
91.034	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
90.480	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
88.901	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
88.414	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
87.466	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
87.334	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
87.165	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
86.735	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
86.060	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
85.165	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
85.147	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
85.071	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
84.644	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
84.610	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
84.605	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
84.560	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
84.028	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
83.786	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
83.257	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
83.007	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
82.220	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
82.030	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
81.871	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
81.221	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
80.878	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
80.561	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
80.138	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
79.602	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
79.271	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
78.997	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
78.647	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
78.603	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
78.530	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
78.439	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
78.010	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
77.427	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
77.104	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
77.036	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
76.988	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
76.894	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
76.858	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
76.499	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
76.366	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
76.284	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
76.012	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
75.908	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
75.691	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
75.618	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
75.300	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
75.250	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
73.913	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
73.351	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
73.216	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
72.964	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
72.900	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
72.688	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
72.548	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
70.965	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
70.954	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
70.699	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
68.620	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
68.392	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
67.889	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
67.739	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
67.734	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
67.646	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
67.570	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
66.577	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
66.415	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
65.369	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
65.232	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
65.151	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
64.990	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
64.988	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in London on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
64.984	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
64.656	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
64.409	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
64.382	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
64.081	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
63.739	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
63.326	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
62.125	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
61.998	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
61.686	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
61.576	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
61.318	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
60.663	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
60.358	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
59.916	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
59.869	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
59.855	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
59.496	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
59.029	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
58.253	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
58.194	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
58.007	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
57.847	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
57.579	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
57.397	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
57.378	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
57.237	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
56.344	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
56.330	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
56.152	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
55.928	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
55.746	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
55.034	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
54.995	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
54.837	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
53.084	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
52.947	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
52.945	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
52.826	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
52.684	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
51.324	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
50.297	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
50.222	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
50.095	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
49.489	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
49.080	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
48.656	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
48.321	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
48.017	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
47.889	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
47.362	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
47.306	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
46.522	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
46.298	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
46.276	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
45.179	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
43.988	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
43.897	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
43.831	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
43.498	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
43.340	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
42.864	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
42.510	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
42.449	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
42.289	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
42.061	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
41.892	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
40.936	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
40.687	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
40.673	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
39.650	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
39.022	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
38.532	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
38.463	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
38.098	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
38.049	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
37.438	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
37.416	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
36.984	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
35.796	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
35.789	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
35.729	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
35.379	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
35.183	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
35.146	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
34.969	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
34.784	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
34.326	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
32.951	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
32.433	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
31.995	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
30.857	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
30.385	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
30.066	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
29.957	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
28.579	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
27.270	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
27.019	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
26.906	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
26.837	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
25.712	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
25.529	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
25.443	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
25.368	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
25.064	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
24.945	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
24.843	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
24.833	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
24.467	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
24.249	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
24.101	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
23.280	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
21.414	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
21.155	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
20.473	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
20.350	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
20.099	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
20.000	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
19.971	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
19.606	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
18.322	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
16.949	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
16.273	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
16.210	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
15.683	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
15.565	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
13.992	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
11.800	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
11.599	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
11.249	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
9.911	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
8.985	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
8.141	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
7.751	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
7.240	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
6.193	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
5.353	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
5.091	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
4.965	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
4.045	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
2.383	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
2.321	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
2.290	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
0.806	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
0.786	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
0.589	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
-0.656	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-1.268	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
-1.541	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
-4.425	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-4.699	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
-6.170	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-11.525	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-12.052	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-13.516	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-14.063	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-16.892	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
-17.374	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-18.252	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
-18.550	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-18.915	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
-19.756	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-19.863	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
-20.250	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
-20.326	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-20.466	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-23.696	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
-25.855	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
-26.764	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-29.277	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
-29.337	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
-30.071	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-30.843	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
-31.251	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
-31.902	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
-33.514	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-33.519	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-34.642	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
-36.554	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-37.232	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-38.062	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
-39.229	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
-40.032	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
-41.056	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-41.320	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-41.379	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
-41.821	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
-42.005	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
-42.018	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
-42.929	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-43.764	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
-45.418	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-45.793	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-49.027	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
-51.134	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-52.573	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-54.457	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-54.573	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
-55.741	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
-55.892	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
-57.994	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-59.161	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
-61.341	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
-61.448	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-64.296	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
-65.462	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
-65.920	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
-66.464	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-66.699	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
-66.970	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-67.350	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
-67.388	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
-69.341	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-69.684	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
-69.930	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-73.899	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
-75.705	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-76.073	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-76.654	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-77.605	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
-81.850	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
-87.276	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-94.119	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-97.639	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-98.045	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-104.447	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-108.585	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-118.440	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
-122.239	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
-122.848	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-127.064	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
-145.550	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-146.948	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-147.054	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-149.204	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
-149.662	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
-156.612	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-164.409	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-168.973	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
-185.117	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-193.255	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
-204.292	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-222.558	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-313.085	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary