isinlor

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6938	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
176.780	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
138.905	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
124.628	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
122.969	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
106.557	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
99.202	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
96.372	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
91.641	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
89.243	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
89.040	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
88.026	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
87.943	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
87.823	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
87.663	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
87.530	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
85.067	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
83.195	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
80.921	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
80.691	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
79.085	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
76.904	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
76.885	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
75.801	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
75.675	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
75.135	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
74.394	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
73.036	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
70.695	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
70.141	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
70.021	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
68.776	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
64.594	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
64.378	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
64.243	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
64.146	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
64.036	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
62.543	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
62.368	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
61.093	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
60.688	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
59.078	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
58.488	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
57.598	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
57.433	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
57.096	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
56.873	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
56.439	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
56.178	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
55.265	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
54.392	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
53.923	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
53.850	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
53.546	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
53.332	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
52.972	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
51.984	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
51.680	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
51.087	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
51.068	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
50.683	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
50.644	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
50.579	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
50.339	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
50.166	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
49.692	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
48.811	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
48.805	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
48.632	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
48.188	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
47.171	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
46.533	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
46.361	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
43.347	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
43.221	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
42.747	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
41.506	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
41.460	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
40.338	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
39.788	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
39.581	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
39.545	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
39.343	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
38.830	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
38.779	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
38.090	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
37.959	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
37.575	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
36.823	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
36.232	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
36.098	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
35.787	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
34.947	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
34.215	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
34.108	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
33.274	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
33.060	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
32.362	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
31.976	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
31.231	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
31.085	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
31.083	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
31.006	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
30.688	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
30.515	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
29.691	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
28.955	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
28.473	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
28.086	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
27.975	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
27.713	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
27.333	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
27.031	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
26.577	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
26.566	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
26.266	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
26.024	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
25.640	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
24.222	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
23.368	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
22.915	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
22.784	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
22.593	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
22.459	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
22.273	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
21.816	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
21.384	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
21.343	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
21.151	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
20.120	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
19.967	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
19.909	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
19.709	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
19.704	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
19.432	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
19.154	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
19.086	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
18.954	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
18.185	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
17.902	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
17.778	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
17.363	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
17.338	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
17.188	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
16.665	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
15.946	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
15.510	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
15.142	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
14.804	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
14.741	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
14.401	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
13.466	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
13.444	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
13.347	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
12.925	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
12.755	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
12.479	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
12.406	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
12.353	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
12.230	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
12.041	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
11.874	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
11.872	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
11.558	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
11.535	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
11.216	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
11.093	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
10.935	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
10.896	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
10.867	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
10.867	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
10.735	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
10.539	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
10.475	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
10.175	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
10.144	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
9.425	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
9.228	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
9.140	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
8.920	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
8.918	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
8.886	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
8.709	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
8.618	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
8.395	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
8.387	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
8.313	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
8.224	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
8.040	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
8.009	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
7.672	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
6.912	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
6.874	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
6.794	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
6.541	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
6.442	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
6.247	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
6.212	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
6.039	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
5.708	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
5.667	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
5.618	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
5.330	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
5.284	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
4.475	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
4.466	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
4.335	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
4.288	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
3.933	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
3.870	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
3.758	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
3.220	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
2.896	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
2.774	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
2.726	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
2.568	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
2.288	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
2.287	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
2.229	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
2.219	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
2.023	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
2.022	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
1.986	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
1.953	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
1.948	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
1.896	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
1.876	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
1.849	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.701	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
1.612	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
1.475	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
1.331	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
1.237	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
1.185	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
1.129	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
1.102	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
1.082	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
1.036	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
0.994	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
0.994	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
0.991	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
0.930	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
0.885	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
0.742	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
0.735	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
0.623	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
0.616	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
0.615	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
0.594	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
0.581	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
0.535	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
0.477	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
0.458	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.248	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
0.209	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
0.207	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
0.194	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
0.173	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
0.070	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
0.057	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-0.303	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-0.753	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-1.141	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-2.027	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-2.197	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
-3.159	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
-3.318	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-4.086	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-4.820	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-5.239	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
-6.485	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-7.252	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-8.370	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
-9.517	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-10.116	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-11.932	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-12.282	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-14.078	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-15.960	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-17.868	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-22.708	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
-24.095	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-27.442	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-31.031	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-31.479	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
-33.715	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-45.107	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-50.169	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-57.411	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-64.470	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-82.323	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-119.859	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-120.453	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary