thee

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5161	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
112.853	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
101.137	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
89.849	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
88.500	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
86.644	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
86.159	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
84.092	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
83.847	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
79.880	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
76.911	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
75.741	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
75.631	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
75.471	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
75.252	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
72.892	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
72.773	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
72.160	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
71.815	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
70.965	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
70.733	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
69.695	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
68.602	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
66.399	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
65.519	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
64.819	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
64.763	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
64.341	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
63.855	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
63.774	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
63.598	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
61.911	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
61.719	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
61.263	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
60.860	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
60.618	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
60.189	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
59.120	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
58.467	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in London on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
58.440	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
58.366	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
57.245	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
57.192	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
56.844	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
56.727	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
56.301	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
56.207	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
55.569	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
55.475	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
54.315	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
54.267	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
53.353	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
52.539	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
52.300	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
52.279	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
51.839	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
51.707	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
51.112	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
49.943	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
47.783	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
47.328	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
46.833	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
44.131	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
43.542	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
42.417	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
42.393	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
41.904	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
40.786	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
39.466	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
38.635	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
37.099	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
36.713	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
36.691	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
35.689	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
35.588	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
35.118	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
34.377	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
34.081	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
33.790	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
33.668	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
32.988	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
32.801	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
32.218	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
32.108	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
30.817	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
30.634	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
30.176	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
30.114	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
29.986	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
29.910	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
29.778	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
29.700	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
29.633	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
27.980	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
27.964	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
27.824	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
27.411	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
27.048	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
26.935	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
26.924	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
26.291	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
25.398	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
25.212	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
25.090	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
24.636	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
24.226	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
23.838	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
23.142	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
23.140	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
22.848	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
22.682	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
22.619	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
21.942	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
21.876	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
21.413	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
21.297	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
20.963	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
20.413	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
19.591	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
19.437	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
18.905	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
18.370	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
17.422	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
17.292	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
16.593	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
16.444	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
16.244	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
16.033	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
15.917	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
15.675	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
15.262	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
14.908	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
14.743	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
14.336	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
13.727	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
13.527	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
13.462	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
12.820	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
12.741	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
12.740	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
11.664	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
11.281	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
11.074	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
10.899	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
10.534	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
10.498	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
10.345	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
9.831	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
9.800	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
9.617	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
9.511	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
9.511	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
9.373	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
9.186	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
8.305	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
8.279	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
8.172	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
8.124	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
7.907	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
7.890	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
7.812	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
7.649	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
7.148	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
7.128	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
6.904	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
6.857	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
6.830	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
6.519	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
5.972	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
5.427	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
5.310	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
5.172	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
4.895	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
4.892	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
4.573	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
4.058	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
3.877	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
3.594	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
3.415	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
3.135	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
3.063	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
2.974	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
2.936	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
2.603	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
2.579	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
2.541	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
2.517	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
2.415	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
2.410	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
2.253	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
1.943	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
1.897	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
1.894	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
1.829	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
1.733	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
1.702	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
1.495	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
1.450	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
1.302	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
1.247	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
1.220	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
1.173	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
1.125	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
1.115	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
1.113	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
0.908	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
0.849	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
0.733	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
0.718	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
0.557	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
0.291	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
-	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
-0.669	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-1.044	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-1.469	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-3.624	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-4.602	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
-5.557	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-6.484	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-7.179	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-7.485	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-7.635	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
-8.043	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-8.515	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
-9.115	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
-11.898	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-12.785	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-17.867	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
-18.166	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-18.200	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-20.718	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
-21.131	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-23.707	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-25.157	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
-29.035	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
-32.992	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
-34.105	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-40.566	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-46.962	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-53.391	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-68.472	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
-76.908	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-81.889	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-85.645	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-126.901	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-139.896	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-175.447	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous