thee

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2284	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
110.579	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
79.726	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
75.520	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
73.724	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
73.504	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
71.842	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
69.594	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
68.439	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
67.401	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
64.952	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
64.234	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
60.126	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
59.771	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
59.124	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
56.840	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
56.808	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
56.541	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
54.939	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
54.645	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
54.539	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
53.885	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
52.224	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
52.115	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
51.838	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
51.677	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
50.373	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
48.337	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
47.387	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
45.917	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
45.862	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
45.325	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
45.310	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
42.458	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
41.275	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
40.921	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
40.463	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
40.056	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
37.682	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
37.576	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
35.030	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
35.020	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
34.518	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
32.608	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
31.334	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
31.029	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
30.052	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
29.586	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
29.142	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
27.489	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
27.391	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
25.801	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
24.356	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
24.193	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
23.763	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
23.730	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
23.637	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
23.564	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
22.874	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
22.466	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
22.397	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
22.117	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
21.629	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
21.331	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
20.631	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
20.266	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
20.096	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
19.893	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
19.724	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
18.432	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
18.035	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
16.933	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
14.433	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
14.030	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
13.528	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
13.436	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
13.273	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
12.582	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
12.470	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
12.256	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
10.628	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
10.201	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
10.128	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
9.265	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
8.947	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
7.894	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
6.996	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
5.496	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
5.448	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
5.270	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
5.026	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
4.671	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
4.554	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
4.533	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
3.945	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
3.085	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
2.968	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
2.708	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
2.260	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
0.787	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
0.712	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
0.603	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
0.433	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
0.326	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
0.117	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.017	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
-	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-0.136	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
-0.202	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
-0.441	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
-0.448	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-0.499	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-1.970	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
-2.870	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
-5.089	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-5.301	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-5.636	How much Wall will, in the end, be built?	Continuous
-6.395	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
-8.090	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-8.753	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-11.228	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-11.674	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
-13.119	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-13.402	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-17.787	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-19.749	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-20.405	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-23.027	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-24.183	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-24.778	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
-29.952	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
-47.274	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-59.211	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-65.572	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-71.094	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-99.782	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-112.009	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-231.598	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary