AngraMainyu

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5090	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
134.611	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
111.290	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
102.537	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
98.898	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
98.777	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
98.650	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
98.262	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
97.784	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
97.599	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
97.565	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
97.565	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
97.106	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
96.959	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
96.705	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
96.279	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
96.260	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
95.512	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
95.309	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
95.186	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
95.133	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
94.714	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
94.593	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
94.546	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
94.448	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
94.423	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
94.318	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
93.206	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
93.167	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
93.130	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
92.427	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
92.047	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
91.912	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
91.911	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
90.916	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
89.826	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
89.019	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
88.555	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
88.026	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
87.380	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
87.169	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
85.102	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
85.053	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
84.796	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
84.754	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
84.557	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
84.122	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
81.446	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
80.897	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
80.661	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
79.299	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
79.222	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
78.673	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
78.088	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
78.076	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
76.401	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
74.617	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
72.920	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
72.820	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
72.738	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
70.803	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
69.770	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
69.439	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
67.981	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
67.743	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
67.002	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
65.400	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
65.338	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
64.199	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
57.445	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
55.244	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
52.906	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
50.364	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
50.143	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
48.791	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
47.765	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
41.581	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
39.803	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
37.978	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
36.822	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
36.694	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
35.794	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
32.426	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
31.664	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
31.239	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
30.902	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
29.140	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
28.402	Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?	Binary
26.093	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
25.813	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
24.576	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
23.854	Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?	Binary
23.235	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
22.119	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
21.924	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
21.029	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
19.915	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
17.883	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
17.353	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
16.487	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
15.399	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
14.418	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
13.352	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
8.865	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
8.469	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
6.443	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
6.408	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
5.682	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
5.371	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
5.186	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
4.958	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
4.822	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
4.663	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
2.964	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
2.683	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
2.650	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
2.499	When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?	Continuous
2.276	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
1.914	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
1.558	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
-	To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?	Binary
-	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
-	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
-2.892	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
-3.184	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
-5.173	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
-7.560	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
-8.702	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
-10.124	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
-11.689	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-14.289	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-15.243	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-15.560	How much Wall will, in the end, be built?	Continuous
-15.907	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
-23.939	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
-24.782	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
-25.779	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-27.190	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-28.963	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-31.528	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
-34.047	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-47.111	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
-55.560	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-58.873	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
-67.772	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
-72.981	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-73.660	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
-86.478	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-91.432	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-97.427	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-102.476	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-104.864	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-135.572	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-141.499	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-160.412	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-197.415	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
-221.239	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary