jzima

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4400	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
144.897	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
119.316	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
99.992	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
96.881	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
96.864	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
95.591	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
94.881	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
92.501	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
92.303	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
91.259	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
91.119	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
90.555	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
90.457	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
89.319	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
86.267	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
85.582	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
84.781	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
84.689	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
84.616	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
84.373	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
84.198	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
83.654	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
83.549	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
83.290	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
82.731	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
79.715	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
77.062	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
76.444	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
76.375	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
76.347	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
73.942	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
73.399	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
73.097	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
70.979	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
67.748	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
67.545	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
67.501	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
65.895	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
65.602	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
65.460	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
64.871	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
64.268	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
63.563	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
62.956	Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?	Binary
61.773	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
61.742	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
58.389	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
58.369	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
57.433	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
55.880	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
54.981	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
54.940	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
52.266	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
52.101	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
49.670	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
48.531	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
48.519	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
48.507	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
48.415	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
48.297	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
48.273	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
45.414	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
45.367	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
45.034	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
45.024	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
42.237	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
40.900	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
40.369	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
40.134	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
38.030	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
37.392	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
35.845	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
35.210	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
34.592	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
31.572	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
29.385	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
27.482	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
26.513	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
25.952	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
25.676	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
24.226	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
24.153	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
23.377	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
23.247	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
22.617	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
22.565	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
21.831	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
21.197	Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?	Binary
20.992	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
18.490	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
18.306	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
16.371	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
15.995	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
15.475	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
14.730	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
14.187	When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?	Continuous
13.886	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
13.728	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
13.714	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
12.747	To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?	Binary
12.281	by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?	Binary
11.731	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
9.263	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
8.786	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
8.772	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
7.963	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
5.640	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
4.644	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
3.966	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
2.805	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
2.512	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
1.916	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.020	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-2.196	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
-3.182	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-4.576	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-7.135	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
-8.531	How much Wall will, in the end, be built?	Continuous
-9.336	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
-10.223	Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?	Binary
-15.151	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
-15.199	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-22.856	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
-22.958	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
-28.209	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-31.619	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-32.122	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-36.944	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-51.172	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-62.397	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-66.314	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
-72.941	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-73.580	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-111.819	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-124.561	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-147.266	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-165.035	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
-173.432	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous