Sigbold

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

501.8	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.642	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
82.772	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
72.994	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
64.659	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
59.537	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
52.619	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
49.748	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
44.247	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
41.890	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
34.551	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
33.224	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
30.974	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
30.391	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
29.501	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
28.331	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
25.829	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
23.670	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
18.166	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
17.931	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
17.632	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
17.313	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
11.972	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
10.976	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
7.104	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
6.440	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
4.420	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
3.635	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
2.496	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
1.958	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
1.645	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
1.293	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
0.955	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
0.052	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-0.600	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
-5.895	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-7.192	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-8.416	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-8.563	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-8.749	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-8.819	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-11.258	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-20.038	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
-26.838	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-39.205	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-49.819	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-105.064	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-123.261	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary