datscilly

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4231	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
140.292	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
125.128	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
114.920	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
109.544	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
107.564	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
106.198	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
97.883	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
97.559	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
91.806	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
91.736	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
91.412	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
90.247	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
87.374	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
85.299	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
83.798	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
83.466	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
81.541	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
80.280	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
79.707	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
70.867	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
70.488	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
69.766	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
69.651	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
68.316	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
66.949	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
66.693	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
65.754	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
64.394	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
60.204	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
58.685	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
58.481	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
57.734	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
57.648	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
57.469	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
57.048	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
56.126	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
55.575	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
55.338	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
55.243	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
54.816	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
54.635	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
54.200	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
52.670	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
52.583	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
52.036	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
51.021	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
49.509	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
49.451	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
45.899	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
45.710	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
45.430	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
45.016	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
44.475	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
43.075	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
42.851	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
42.840	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
42.106	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
40.815	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
40.366	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
40.293	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
39.045	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
37.855	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
37.810	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
37.387	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
36.106	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
34.938	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
34.386	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
34.322	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
33.742	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
32.954	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
32.800	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
32.531	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
32.260	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
30.460	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
29.648	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
29.107	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
28.973	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
28.610	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
28.088	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
26.430	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
26.041	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
25.974	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
25.922	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
25.183	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
24.394	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
23.961	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
23.332	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
19.567	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
19.536	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
19.129	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
18.883	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
18.624	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
18.420	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
18.376	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
17.760	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
17.175	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
17.000	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
16.769	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
16.659	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
16.533	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
16.487	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
16.309	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
14.889	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
14.218	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
13.744	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
13.595	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
13.498	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
13.099	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
13.037	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
12.873	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
12.588	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
12.238	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
11.070	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
9.848	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
9.397	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
9.358	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
9.327	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
9.294	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
8.453	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
7.436	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
4.333	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
3.939	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
3.480	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
3.387	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
3.361	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
2.406	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
1.638	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
1.521	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
1.370	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
0.996	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
0.335	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
0.215	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
0.006	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
-	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-1.211	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
-2.207	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
-2.256	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
-2.446	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-5.028	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-9.532	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-13.286	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-14.159	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-15.700	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-19.430	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
-22.638	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-23.720	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-26.170	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-38.993	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-44.584	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-51.326	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-56.775	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-58.754	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
-67.067	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-71.978	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-87.746	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-97.894	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-117.064	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-148.583	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-182.995	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous