Reprisal

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

8973	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
185.560	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
160.675	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
159.711	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
145.457	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
140.490	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
134.503	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
134.447	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
132.605	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
126.172	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
125.782	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
125.589	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
123.976	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
114.290	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
113.587	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
111.415	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
108.209	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
105.476	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
102.011	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
98.916	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
95.630	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
95.327	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
94.463	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
94.425	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
94.342	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
94.331	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
94.125	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
93.824	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
93.626	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
91.648	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
91.179	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
90.277	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
89.073	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
88.724	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
88.697	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
88.245	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
88.143	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
88.119	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
86.725	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
86.341	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
86.298	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
85.965	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
85.894	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
85.812	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
85.779	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
85.588	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
85.019	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
84.937	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
84.715	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
84.607	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
84.246	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
84.098	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
84.085	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
84.004	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
83.128	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
81.581	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
81.490	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
81.456	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
80.855	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
80.243	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
80.055	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
78.662	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
78.627	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
77.905	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
77.884	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
77.843	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
77.577	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
77.447	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
77.134	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
76.745	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
76.567	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
76.559	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
76.310	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
76.167	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
75.545	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
75.386	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
74.695	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
74.515	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
74.468	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
74.369	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
74.135	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
73.722	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
72.287	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
71.547	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
70.984	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
70.766	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
70.672	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
70.618	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
69.669	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
68.924	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
68.546	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
68.532	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
68.193	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
68.155	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
67.012	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
67.009	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
66.333	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
65.942	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
65.298	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
65.222	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
64.925	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
64.674	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
64.487	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
64.468	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
64.380	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
63.435	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
63.120	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
63.031	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
61.512	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
61.458	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
61.331	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
61.283	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
61.168	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
61.092	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
60.845	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
59.976	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
59.904	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
59.824	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
59.208	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
58.827	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
58.712	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
58.227	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
58.225	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
57.793	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
56.862	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
56.760	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
56.675	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
56.107	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
55.980	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
55.799	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
54.221	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
54.119	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
53.936	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
53.617	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
52.508	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
51.679	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
51.359	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
50.326	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
50.314	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
50.097	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
49.583	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
49.450	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
48.912	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
48.907	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
48.860	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
48.844	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
48.797	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
48.491	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
48.137	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
47.744	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
47.153	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
45.680	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
45.571	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
45.543	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
45.235	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
44.998	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
43.839	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
43.172	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
42.855	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
42.667	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
41.999	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
41.869	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
40.601	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
40.534	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
40.388	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
40.104	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
39.059	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
38.880	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
38.672	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
38.569	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
38.280	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
37.886	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
37.092	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
36.051	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
35.942	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
35.741	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
35.605	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
35.241	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
35.096	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
34.851	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
33.092	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
32.546	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
31.732	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
30.952	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
30.822	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
29.757	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
29.439	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
29.039	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
28.415	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
28.230	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
27.957	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
27.917	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
27.189	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
26.558	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
26.417	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
26.006	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
25.681	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
25.318	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
25.079	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
24.975	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
24.945	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
24.741	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
24.465	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
24.078	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
21.910	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
21.476	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
21.207	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
21.127	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
20.551	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
19.818	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
19.449	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
18.842	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
18.781	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
18.732	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
18.226	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
16.208	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
15.704	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
15.220	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
15.044	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
14.285	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
14.165	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
13.042	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
11.990	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
11.137	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
10.492	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
10.138	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
9.048	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
8.898	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
8.448	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
7.533	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
6.876	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
6.213	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
5.891	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
5.818	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
4.810	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
4.707	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
4.405	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
3.769	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
3.696	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
2.007	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
1.656	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
0.803	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
0.474	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
0.079	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-0.556	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-1.661	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
-2.005	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
-2.267	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
-2.443	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
-3.838	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-5.800	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-6.311	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-8.658	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-9.879	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-9.936	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-12.097	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
-12.115	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
-14.494	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-15.672	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
-16.908	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
-17.144	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-17.194	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
-20.807	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-20.905	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-21.819	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-22.975	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
-24.251	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
-25.601	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
-27.004	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-27.537	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
-27.711	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-30.160	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-31.843	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-34.144	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-35.203	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-35.537	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-37.755	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-42.284	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-43.479	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-43.958	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-44.265	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
-44.839	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-47.839	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-50.528	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
-51.743	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
-52.316	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
-52.502	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
-54.743	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-55.712	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
-56.124	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
-56.903	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
-57.510	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
-57.917	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
-57.975	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-58.355	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-62.152	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
-63.618	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
-64.986	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-68.504	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-69.479	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
-72.955	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-73.183	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-74.228	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-80.624	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
-81.703	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
-86.220	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
-99.686	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-104.669	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-106.586	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-110.082	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-116.188	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
-119.901	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-125.945	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-128.829	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
-133.137	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-144.311	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-145.008	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-156.489	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
-162.745	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-164.619	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-167.916	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-173.206	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-181.609	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
-195.948	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-202.411	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous