pranomostro

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3953	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
119.669	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
109.395	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
106.067	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
105.947	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
95.847	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
95.289	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
93.760	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
93.638	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
92.245	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
90.764	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
89.463	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
89.096	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
87.840	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
87.758	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
86.409	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
86.299	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
85.933	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
85.908	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
85.568	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
85.111	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
82.821	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
81.523	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
80.257	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
79.133	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
78.970	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
78.222	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
77.517	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
77.508	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
77.243	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
75.596	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
73.087	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
71.489	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
68.883	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
67.113	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
64.119	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
63.487	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
63.432	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
60.203	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
59.745	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
58.488	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
58.411	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
57.535	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
56.509	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
55.404	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
55.383	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
54.654	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
54.397	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
53.002	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
52.576	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
52.574	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
51.201	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
50.210	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
50.123	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
48.652	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
48.420	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
47.962	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
46.174	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
46.140	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
45.985	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
44.355	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
44.078	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
43.226	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
43.091	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
42.985	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
42.450	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
42.367	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
42.208	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
41.411	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
40.761	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
39.603	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
39.511	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
37.934	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
35.469	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
34.386	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
34.021	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
33.753	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
31.927	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
31.615	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
31.451	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
30.276	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
30.109	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
30.103	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
29.757	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
29.042	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
28.937	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
28.658	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
28.532	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
28.213	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
27.911	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
27.109	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
26.900	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
26.142	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
24.334	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
23.898	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
23.836	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
23.073	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
22.696	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
22.445	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
22.358	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
22.101	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
21.866	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
20.184	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
19.675	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
19.273	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
19.192	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
19.172	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
18.182	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
17.811	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
17.646	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
12.142	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
11.417	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
11.092	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
9.259	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
6.633	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
5.710	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
5.697	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
5.285	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
5.077	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
4.215	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
3.044	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
-0.482	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
-0.539	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
-2.207	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
-2.465	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
-2.566	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
-4.049	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
-9.466	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-10.041	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
-10.829	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
-10.874	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-15.266	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
-17.390	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-18.751	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-19.283	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
-20.204	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-20.233	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-21.426	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-22.248	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
-22.935	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
-23.741	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-25.533	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
-25.677	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-27.677	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-27.982	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
-30.171	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-32.180	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
-36.012	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-38.106	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
-39.082	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-39.817	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-44.683	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
-49.318	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-51.451	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-52.580	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-73.219	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-80.546	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-99.143	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
-111.637	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-117.329	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
-151.133	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-193.753	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-327.098	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary