DrMatt

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

578.3	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
83.980	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
76.723	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
58.823	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
45.545	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
45.304	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
38.790	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
36.920	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
35.150	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
33.901	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
29.148	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
26.454	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
25.283	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
22.893	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
21.910	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
21.896	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
20.680	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
20.421	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
12.318	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
12.071	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
12.040	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
11.242	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
10.987	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
8.740	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
5.106	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
4.618	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
2.787	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
2.631	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
1.486	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
-	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
-	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-2.358	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-48.374	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-98.842	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary