steven0461

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

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8209	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
220.262	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
146.232	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
121.136	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
115.349	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
114.568	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
113.027	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
106.217	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
93.757	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
91.774	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
90.288	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
88.579	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
88.490	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
87.844	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
87.730	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
86.764	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
86.173	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
86.092	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
85.976	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
85.383	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
85.167	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
84.335	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
84.028	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
82.356	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
81.440	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
80.628	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
80.556	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
78.938	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
78.449	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
78.077	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
77.535	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
75.796	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
75.618	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
75.353	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
74.431	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
74.306	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
74.249	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
73.668	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
72.496	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
72.337	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
71.071	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
69.780	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
69.276	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
68.667	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
68.487	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
68.290	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
68.269	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
67.628	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
67.548	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
67.011	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
65.478	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
65.467	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
65.465	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
63.672	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
63.570	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
62.858	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
62.602	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
61.860	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
61.722	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
61.356	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
60.794	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
60.684	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
60.670	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
60.157	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
59.865	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
59.408	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
58.999	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
58.748	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
58.588	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
58.288	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
57.885	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
57.844	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
57.372	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
56.724	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
56.269	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
55.850	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
55.155	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
55.113	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
55.035	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
54.375	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
54.082	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
53.587	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
53.242	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
53.023	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
52.494	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
52.484	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
51.729	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
51.682	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
51.546	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
51.284	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
51.283	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
51.191	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
51.146	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
50.965	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
50.812	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
50.472	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
50.337	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
48.890	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
48.879	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
48.773	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
48.660	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
48.457	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
48.142	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
47.839	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
47.223	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
47.065	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
46.698	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
46.037	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
45.543	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
45.305	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
44.734	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
44.603	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
44.368	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
44.339	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
44.207	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
43.993	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
41.699	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
41.579	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
40.533	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
40.256	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
40.253	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
40.100	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
40.039	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
39.876	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
39.447	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
38.944	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
38.881	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
38.656	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
38.169	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
37.341	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
37.008	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
36.963	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
35.983	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
35.045	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
34.632	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
34.489	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
34.201	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
32.549	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
31.288	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
31.238	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in London on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
30.887	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
30.458	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
30.450	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
30.418	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
30.415	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
30.144	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
29.983	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
29.643	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
29.547	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
28.941	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
28.434	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
28.434	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
28.161	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
27.708	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
26.225	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
24.315	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
23.416	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
23.363	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
22.615	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
22.490	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
22.466	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
22.369	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
21.684	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
21.521	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
20.396	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
20.290	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
19.867	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
19.703	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
19.005	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
18.901	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
17.530	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
17.288	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
16.831	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
16.527	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
16.060	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
15.863	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
15.532	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
15.065	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
13.156	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
12.553	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
12.542	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
12.390	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
12.281	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
12.039	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
10.851	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
10.572	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
10.514	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
9.549	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
9.338	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
8.383	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
8.284	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
7.988	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
7.618	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
7.306	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
7.230	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
7.093	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
7.023	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
6.934	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
6.725	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
6.249	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
5.600	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
5.593	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
5.227	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
4.128	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
3.850	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
3.734	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
3.329	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
3.000	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
2.849	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
2.624	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
2.499	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
2.248	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
2.243	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
2.137	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
2.007	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
1.977	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
1.952	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
1.903	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
1.818	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
1.743	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
1.650	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
1.612	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
1.506	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
1.027	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
1.014	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
0.960	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
0.953	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
0.936	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
0.910	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.800	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
0.792	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
0.673	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
0.543	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.366	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
0.351	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
0.345	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
0.342	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
0.278	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.265	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
0.259	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
0.159	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
0.099	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
0.093	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-0.015	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-0.543	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-0.581	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-1.035	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-1.337	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-1.361	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
-3.121	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-3.566	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
-4.037	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-4.257	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-4.338	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-4.865	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
-5.327	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-5.495	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-5.664	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-8.158	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-8.614	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-10.147	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-11.012	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
-11.088	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-12.026	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
-12.667	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-12.676	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
-12.849	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-14.554	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-22.608	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-22.808	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-23.494	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-29.355	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
-32.486	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
-34.684	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-34.732	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-36.648	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
-38.772	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-43.157	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
-63.120	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-63.826	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-66.910	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-70.297	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-73.525	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-80.576	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-81.655	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-85.150	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-85.811	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-86.956	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-95.170	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-96.777	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-106.214	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-130.019	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary