Nichevo

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1212	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
85.779	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
82.068	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
54.620	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
54.071	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
51.024	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
46.368	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
46.223	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
45.719	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
44.962	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
41.831	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
40.540	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
38.224	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
36.856	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
36.096	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
35.284	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
34.624	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
33.980	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
33.697	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
28.902	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
28.643	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
28.349	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
28.033	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
27.111	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
26.652	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
24.462	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
24.446	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
21.813	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
21.796	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
21.562	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
21.516	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
20.346	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
19.426	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
19.248	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
18.765	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
17.992	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
17.941	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
17.604	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
16.521	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
16.164	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
14.745	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
14.640	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
14.178	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
13.778	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
13.113	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
12.897	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
12.729	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
12.493	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
11.394	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
11.101	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
10.769	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
10.484	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
10.146	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
8.858	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
8.383	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
8.367	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
8.355	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
8.251	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
8.020	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
7.593	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
7.366	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
7.091	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
6.927	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
6.911	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
6.831	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
6.824	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
6.652	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
6.357	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
5.866	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
5.475	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
5.327	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
5.144	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
5.131	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
4.902	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
4.661	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
4.591	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
4.581	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
4.491	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
4.391	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
4.377	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
4.246	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
4.159	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
4.146	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
4.108	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
3.855	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
3.822	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
3.821	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
3.726	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
3.680	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
3.574	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
3.512	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
3.353	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
3.128	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
3.092	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
2.899	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
2.799	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
2.639	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
2.634	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
2.624	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
2.548	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
2.463	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
2.417	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
2.357	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
2.292	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
2.261	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
2.180	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
2.180	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
2.140	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
2.127	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
1.959	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
1.934	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
1.916	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
1.790	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.739	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
1.727	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
1.667	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
1.640	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
1.621	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
1.542	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
1.534	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
1.483	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
1.459	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
1.453	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
1.163	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
1.105	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
1.097	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
1.035	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
0.853	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
0.839	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
0.834	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.816	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
0.648	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
0.553	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.484	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
0.467	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
0.431	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
0.369	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.263	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
0.187	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
0.089	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-0.048	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-0.241	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-0.369	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-0.712	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-5.245	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
-9.440	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-13.918	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-17.411	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-28.096	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-43.993	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-51.986	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-52.001	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-63.691	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-117.453	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
-149.885	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous