katifish

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3300	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
130.549	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
97.723	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
92.656	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
88.836	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
88.454	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
88.318	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
87.321	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
87.032	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
86.669	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
85.942	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
84.715	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
83.897	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
82.899	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
82.896	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
79.974	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
78.729	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
78.217	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
76.883	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
76.626	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
75.776	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
75.298	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
73.390	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
72.823	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
72.379	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
72.024	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
70.155	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
69.560	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
67.699	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
67.568	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
66.824	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
65.853	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
65.236	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
64.796	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
64.688	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
64.018	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
63.379	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
60.810	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
60.214	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
58.275	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
58.130	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
57.912	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
53.427	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
51.312	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
50.462	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
50.117	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
49.414	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
48.820	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
47.955	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
45.305	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
44.586	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
44.363	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
42.726	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
40.639	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
40.502	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
39.651	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
38.702	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
38.252	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
37.993	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
37.623	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
36.623	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
36.348	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
35.240	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
34.997	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
33.737	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
32.722	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
32.644	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
32.306	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
32.234	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
31.944	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
31.442	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
30.815	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
28.944	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
28.679	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
28.662	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
27.710	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
27.147	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
26.636	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
26.151	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
25.682	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
23.758	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
23.603	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
20.503	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
20.101	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
19.132	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
16.212	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
15.854	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
15.547	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
14.233	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
13.039	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
12.591	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
12.578	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
11.723	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
11.407	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
11.217	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
9.855	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
8.453	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
8.332	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
8.226	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
7.570	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
7.033	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
6.716	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
5.800	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
5.034	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
4.654	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
4.533	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
2.974	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
-0.762	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-1.989	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
-3.054	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-6.098	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-6.935	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-8.564	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-9.471	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-11.354	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-11.546	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-11.764	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-11.781	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-11.991	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-16.056	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-16.062	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
-17.032	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-18.470	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
-18.579	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
-21.879	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-24.296	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-27.389	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-35.457	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-35.950	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
-38.431	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
-43.445	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-44.451	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-54.154	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-54.950	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-73.886	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-79.594	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-92.879	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-94.284	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-119.027	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-122.400	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-134.431	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-143.317	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-146.657	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary