BrentR

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1747	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
130.624	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
103.397	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
100.083	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
92.956	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
92.185	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
88.381	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
87.632	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
87.330	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
85.759	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
85.681	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
85.276	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
84.212	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
83.742	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
82.524	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
78.744	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
77.132	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
77.125	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
76.549	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
76.233	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
76.171	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
74.827	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
74.503	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
72.662	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
71.707	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
70.755	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
69.875	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
69.595	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
69.558	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
69.537	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
69.466	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
69.317	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
69.063	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
68.076	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
67.141	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
66.430	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
65.658	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
63.977	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
63.469	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
62.840	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
62.230	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
60.597	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
60.329	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
59.839	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
58.334	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
57.779	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
56.533	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
54.474	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
54.437	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
54.207	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
54.062	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
53.938	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
52.606	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
52.297	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
52.051	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
51.910	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
50.626	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
50.459	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
50.384	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
50.213	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
49.940	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
49.303	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
48.826	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
48.465	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
48.450	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
47.885	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
47.714	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
47.020	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
46.589	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
46.094	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
45.327	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
44.987	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
44.643	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
44.058	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
43.938	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
42.422	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
42.222	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
41.950	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
41.536	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
41.314	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
40.614	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
38.754	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
37.978	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
37.851	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
37.791	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
37.446	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
36.788	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
36.120	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
31.929	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
31.673	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
31.605	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
29.798	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
24.803	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
22.401	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
22.072	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
19.856	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
14.545	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
12.790	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
11.682	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
9.572	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
5.380	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
4.065	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
3.056	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
2.215	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
1.200	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-0.238	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-0.376	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
-0.501	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
-3.859	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-4.093	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
-5.521	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-9.126	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
-9.671	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
-11.612	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-20.877	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-20.922	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-21.013	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
-21.114	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-22.032	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-27.130	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-31.781	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-32.946	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
-33.734	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-37.956	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
-43.405	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
-44.114	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-47.054	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
-51.372	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
-53.268	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
-55.497	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-59.547	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-62.888	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
-64.187	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-64.373	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-76.050	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-80.743	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-81.704	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
-82.660	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-83.030	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
-84.407	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-86.595	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
-95.737	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
-96.142	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-99.654	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
-105.850	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-108.058	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-111.856	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
-125.166	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-128.003	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-149.646	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-150.289	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-151.154	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
-157.194	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
-169.030	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-188.897	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-192.661	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-214.446	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
-225.527	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous