jack

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

5820	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
206.157	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
108.712	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
100.941	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
99.595	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
97.716	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
97.294	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
89.971	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
89.319	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
85.692	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
84.851	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
83.798	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
81.946	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
81.580	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
81.398	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
81.109	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
80.414	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
80.413	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
79.862	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
79.078	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
78.511	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
77.645	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
75.525	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
74.250	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
74.180	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
73.834	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
71.080	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
70.755	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
69.639	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
69.511	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
69.368	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
68.913	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
68.174	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
67.424	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
67.396	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
67.327	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
67.220	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
66.939	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
65.812	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
65.551	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
64.268	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
61.172	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
60.835	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
59.482	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
59.318	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
57.252	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
57.226	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
56.220	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
56.180	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
55.726	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
54.461	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
54.203	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
54.168	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
54.091	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
53.803	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
53.768	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
53.299	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
52.012	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
51.826	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
51.647	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
51.498	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
51.326	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
50.837	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
50.121	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
49.998	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
49.845	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
48.762	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
47.976	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
47.793	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
45.969	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
45.860	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
44.901	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
44.741	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in London on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
44.625	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
44.103	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
43.938	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
43.579	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
43.133	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
42.951	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
42.746	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
42.479	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
42.078	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
41.875	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
41.594	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
40.960	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
40.482	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
40.318	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
39.316	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
38.740	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
37.837	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
37.751	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
35.797	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
35.652	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
35.484	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
35.308	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
34.964	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
34.742	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
34.098	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
33.969	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
33.750	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
33.507	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
32.672	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
32.305	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
32.266	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
32.075	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
31.756	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
31.573	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
31.517	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
31.395	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
30.558	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
30.457	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
30.293	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
29.515	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
28.935	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
27.717	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
27.548	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
26.696	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
25.938	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
25.303	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
25.288	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
25.240	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
24.711	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
24.163	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
23.627	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
23.137	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
22.133	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
21.912	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
21.866	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
21.636	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
21.342	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
21.273	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
21.138	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
20.343	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
20.203	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
20.198	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
20.009	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
19.840	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
19.816	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
19.079	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
19.002	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
18.798	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
18.154	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
17.770	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
17.731	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
17.720	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
17.416	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
17.137	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
17.050	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
17.020	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
16.842	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
16.755	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
15.516	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
15.139	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
15.094	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
14.712	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
14.597	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
14.159	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
14.137	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
13.905	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
13.664	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
13.472	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
12.668	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
12.652	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
12.558	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
12.383	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
12.281	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
12.151	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
12.139	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
12.031	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
11.619	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
11.476	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
11.381	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
11.211	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
11.085	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
11.031	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
10.680	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
10.289	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
10.115	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
9.962	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
9.943	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
9.741	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
9.340	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
9.179	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
9.143	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
8.568	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
8.348	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
8.205	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
8.118	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
7.976	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
7.613	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
7.254	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
7.200	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
6.977	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
6.963	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
6.262	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
5.648	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
5.343	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
4.817	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
4.271	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
4.256	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
3.880	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
3.701	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
3.205	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
2.958	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
2.884	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
2.420	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
2.367	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
2.304	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
1.671	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
1.537	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
1.495	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
1.362	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
1.181	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
1.167	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.119	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
1.056	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
1.039	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
0.588	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
0.397	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
0.391	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
0.368	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
0.232	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
0.219	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
0.177	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
0.163	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
0.157	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.064	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
-	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-0.136	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
-0.841	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-1.876	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-2.656	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
-2.812	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-3.215	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
-4.441	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-4.565	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-4.727	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-5.242	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-5.441	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-8.934	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-12.708	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
-13.189	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-13.208	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-14.647	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-14.844	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-14.964	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
-15.023	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-15.067	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-19.834	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
-21.570	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-24.099	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-27.101	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-28.080	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
-28.783	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-33.051	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-34.017	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
-36.520	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-38.260	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
-47.271	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
-48.784	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
-50.061	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
-63.848	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-70.767	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-74.432	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-89.127	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-96.892	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-124.747	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-132.925	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-155.875	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-178.713	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-179.226	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-195.387	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary