felawinkelmolen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

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3421	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
223.317	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
104.081	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
101.022	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
89.287	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
86.957	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
84.399	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
79.403	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
77.901	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
76.347	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
71.544	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
70.612	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
68.861	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
68.860	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
66.371	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
65.352	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
63.199	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
62.992	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
62.078	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
58.030	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
57.672	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
56.935	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
56.488	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
55.965	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
55.426	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
54.931	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
53.581	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
53.363	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
53.322	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
52.988	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
50.084	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
49.910	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
48.741	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
46.192	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
44.324	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
44.216	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
43.596	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
42.385	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
41.428	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
41.041	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
40.960	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
39.808	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
39.579	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
39.240	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
38.439	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
38.225	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
38.134	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
37.102	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
37.005	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
36.512	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
36.154	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
35.983	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
35.368	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
35.175	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
35.090	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
34.533	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
34.223	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
33.900	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
32.941	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
31.475	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
31.433	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
30.435	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
30.333	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
29.764	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
29.515	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
28.296	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
27.123	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
26.804	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
26.804	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
26.710	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
26.594	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
25.879	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
25.862	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
25.593	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
24.717	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
24.404	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
24.125	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
23.536	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
23.182	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
23.109	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
21.925	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
21.326	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
20.953	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
19.827	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
19.436	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
19.365	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
18.587	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
18.156	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
17.518	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
15.400	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
15.245	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
14.850	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
13.586	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
13.243	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
13.119	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
12.818	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
12.653	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
12.440	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
11.780	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
10.843	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
10.330	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
10.276	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
10.190	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
9.849	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
9.802	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
9.604	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
9.103	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
8.515	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
8.411	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
7.885	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
7.436	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
7.281	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
6.959	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
6.866	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
6.232	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
5.789	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
5.748	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
5.662	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
5.320	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
5.063	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
4.626	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
4.424	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
4.180	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
4.129	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
3.991	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
3.873	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
3.573	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
3.552	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
3.154	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
3.074	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
3.017	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
3.016	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
2.822	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
2.649	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
2.208	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
2.204	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
2.151	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
1.809	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
1.523	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
1.454	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
1.193	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
1.192	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
1.013	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
0.983	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
0.878	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
0.827	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.720	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
0.602	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
0.595	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
0.505	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
0.372	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
0.343	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
-0.585	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
-0.902	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-4.225	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-5.048	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-5.670	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-6.724	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
-15.304	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-16.126	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-18.729	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-20.194	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
-23.541	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-38.545	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-39.925	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-41.085	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-41.592	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-46.248	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-47.656	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-47.799	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-52.249	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-68.241	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
-70.796	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-79.275	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-84.183	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-86.837	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-114.487	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary