Vang

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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13.95k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
241.016	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
150.762	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
148.450	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
144.921	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
137.877	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
127.203	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
120.307	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
118.065	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
116.767	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
115.957	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
115.913	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
114.271	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
111.928	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
107.898	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
106.772	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
104.864	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
103.894	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
101.529	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
100.701	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
99.553	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
99.177	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
98.969	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
97.749	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
96.827	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
95.367	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
94.827	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
94.177	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
93.601	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
93.394	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
93.047	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
92.389	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
92.347	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
92.057	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
91.585	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
91.467	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
91.284	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
90.238	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
88.938	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
88.659	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
87.932	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
87.867	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
87.480	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
86.608	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
86.148	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
85.599	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
85.152	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
84.497	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
83.942	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
83.887	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
83.743	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
83.509	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
83.015	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
82.407	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
82.382	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
82.324	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
81.314	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
81.116	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
80.834	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
80.763	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
80.377	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
80.205	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
79.683	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
79.601	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
78.870	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
78.609	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
78.598	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
78.437	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
78.046	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
77.784	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
77.757	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
77.588	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
77.170	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
76.993	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
76.478	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
75.852	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
75.798	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
75.643	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
75.599	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
75.291	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
74.050	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
73.995	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
73.146	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
72.850	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
72.358	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
72.271	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
72.248	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
72.139	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
71.941	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
71.913	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
71.904	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
71.880	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
71.689	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
71.686	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
71.431	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
71.254	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
70.115	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
69.851	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
69.678	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
69.141	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
68.210	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
68.142	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
67.762	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
67.310	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
67.153	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
66.868	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
66.454	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
65.870	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
65.384	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
64.284	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
63.709	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
63.651	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
63.412	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
63.350	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
63.290	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
63.122	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
62.520	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
61.230	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
61.127	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
60.932	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
60.860	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
60.148	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
59.969	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
59.439	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
58.726	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
58.692	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
58.533	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
58.297	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
57.999	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
57.654	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
57.620	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
57.607	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
57.362	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
57.206	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
57.199	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
57.138	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
56.967	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
56.922	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
56.489	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
56.153	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
55.228	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
55.066	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
54.483	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
54.383	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
54.110	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
53.455	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
53.387	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
53.343	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
53.192	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
52.751	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
52.138	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
52.051	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
51.949	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
51.286	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
51.042	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
50.924	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
50.674	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
49.879	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
49.784	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
49.738	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
49.549	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
49.077	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
49.037	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
48.835	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
48.757	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
48.748	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
48.620	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
48.351	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
48.083	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
47.774	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
47.438	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
47.046	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
46.947	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
46.746	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
46.232	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
45.969	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
45.293	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
44.553	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
44.158	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
44.155	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
43.844	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
43.715	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
43.628	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
43.355	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
42.672	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
41.701	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
41.351	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
40.803	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
40.800	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
40.498	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
38.677	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
38.214	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
38.197	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
36.895	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
36.390	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
36.389	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
36.216	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
35.906	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
35.882	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
35.787	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
35.241	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
35.075	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
34.499	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
34.170	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
32.796	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
32.587	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
31.517	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
31.070	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
30.973	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
30.706	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
30.328	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
30.144	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
30.096	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
29.443	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
29.209	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
29.052	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
28.981	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
28.817	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
28.709	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
28.641	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
28.582	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
27.449	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
26.751	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
26.673	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
26.352	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
23.928	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
23.762	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
23.668	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in London on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
23.168	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
22.791	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
22.246	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
21.380	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
20.913	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
20.131	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
19.653	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
19.312	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
19.047	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
18.839	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
18.726	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
18.216	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
18.058	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
17.827	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
17.802	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
17.584	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
15.138	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
14.441	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
14.231	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
13.980	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
13.019	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
12.766	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
12.501	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
12.416	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
10.422	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
9.935	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
9.296	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
9.057	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
9.033	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
8.570	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
8.489	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
8.108	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
8.051	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
7.678	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
7.028	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
6.365	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
5.844	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
5.841	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
5.584	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
5.404	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
5.388	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
5.014	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
4.661	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
3.605	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
3.486	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
3.305	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
3.273	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
2.847	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
2.494	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
2.287	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
2.178	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
1.993	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
1.979	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
0.330	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
0.324	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
0.259	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
0.232	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
0.099	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
0.081	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.020	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.019	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
0.008	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
-	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-0.123	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
-0.524	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-0.586	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-1.450	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-2.190	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-3.471	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-3.818	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
-4.456	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
-5.210	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-5.569	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-6.283	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-6.595	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-8.734	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-8.805	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-9.097	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
-11.152	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
-12.564	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-12.871	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-13.352	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-13.571	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-14.857	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-16.541	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-17.028	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
-20.198	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-20.380	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-24.850	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
-25.108	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
-25.203	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
-34.443	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-34.902	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-38.682	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-41.704	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-47.827	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-56.017	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
-61.746	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-68.275	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
-81.861	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-87.404	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-106.088	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-106.166	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-113.762	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-126.722	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-148.104	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-203.169	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary