alexrjl

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6358	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
162.984	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
135.580	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
128.314	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
125.912	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
118.504	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
113.890	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
112.283	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
111.470	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
106.450	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
97.005	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
96.519	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
96.281	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
95.792	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
94.696	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
94.451	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
93.262	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
93.177	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
92.868	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
92.405	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
89.343	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
85.906	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
85.882	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
84.810	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
84.636	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
84.282	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
83.618	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
83.552	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
83.376	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
82.045	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
79.713	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
79.645	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
78.522	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
78.003	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
77.499	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
77.447	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
74.914	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
73.872	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
73.667	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
72.948	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
72.224	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
71.361	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
67.835	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
67.371	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
66.334	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
66.062	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
65.606	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
62.976	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
60.366	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
60.324	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
59.959	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
59.502	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
59.474	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
59.281	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
58.647	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
58.412	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
58.382	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
57.776	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
57.562	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
57.210	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
57.013	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
56.249	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
55.583	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
55.326	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
55.073	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
52.932	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
52.698	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
52.061	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
50.730	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
50.069	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
48.207	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
47.687	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
47.029	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
45.362	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
45.286	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
44.935	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
42.620	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
42.028	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
41.793	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
40.233	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
40.214	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
40.031	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
39.912	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
39.218	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
38.687	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
37.450	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
37.426	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
35.743	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
35.191	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
34.988	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
34.620	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
34.277	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
33.070	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
32.802	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
32.780	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
32.334	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
31.764	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
31.618	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
30.626	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
30.391	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
30.062	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
28.882	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
27.903	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
27.605	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
26.006	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
25.466	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
25.313	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
24.754	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
24.350	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
23.996	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
22.941	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
22.892	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
21.737	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
21.068	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
20.729	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
20.227	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
19.633	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
18.888	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
18.593	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
18.426	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
15.001	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
14.293	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
14.150	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
13.947	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
13.249	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
12.871	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
12.318	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
10.979	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
10.108	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
9.401	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
8.656	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
8.498	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
8.422	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
8.385	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
5.213	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
4.445	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
3.594	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
3.571	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
3.553	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
3.291	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
3.176	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
2.678	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
2.394	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
2.343	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
2.172	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
1.807	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
1.802	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
1.725	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
1.457	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
1.375	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
1.242	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
1.029	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
0.859	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
0.818	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.174	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
0.171	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.069	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-0.136	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-3.011	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-3.646	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-4.277	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-4.723	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-6.471	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-6.487	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-7.524	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
-16.249	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-34.768	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-42.650	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-51.563	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-60.283	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-104.453	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-129.240	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-132.434	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-142.890	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-177.855	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary