schelling42

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

471.9	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
68.309	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
60.118	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
55.354	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
52.211	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
51.381	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
48.285	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
46.625	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
32.384	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
28.630	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
26.821	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
17.624	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
16.915	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
16.078	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
15.108	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
13.996	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
13.086	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
12.948	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
12.258	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
9.946	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
6.827	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
3.326	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
2.996	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
2.975	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
2.741	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
2.738	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
2.542	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
2.287	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
2.149	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
1.910	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
1.750	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
1.689	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
1.370	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
0.939	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
0.807	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
0.314	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
0.285	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
0.144	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
0.000	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
-0.018	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-0.388	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
-0.489	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-1.006	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-1.751	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-2.040	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
-2.057	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-14.784	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-15.790	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-17.738	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-18.388	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-89.487	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary