Alexander230

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

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4991	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
101.331	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
93.940	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
92.560	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
86.816	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
83.984	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
83.782	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
73.670	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
72.851	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
69.874	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
69.609	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
68.951	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
68.307	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
68.095	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
67.787	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
67.300	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
66.438	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
65.953	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
65.685	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
65.021	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
64.766	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
64.573	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
64.555	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
63.734	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
63.600	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
63.037	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
62.521	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
59.819	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
58.959	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
58.754	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
56.671	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
56.161	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
55.780	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
54.668	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
53.697	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
53.669	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
52.580	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
52.028	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
50.656	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
50.543	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
50.377	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
49.677	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
48.763	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
48.569	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
48.568	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
48.092	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
47.798	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
47.153	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
45.410	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
44.015	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
43.958	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
43.042	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
42.554	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
42.092	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
41.169	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
40.915	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
40.638	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
40.613	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
40.519	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
39.994	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
39.401	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
38.220	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
37.969	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
37.124	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
37.010	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
36.792	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
35.624	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
35.423	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
35.041	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
33.734	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
33.273	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
32.785	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
32.109	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
32.041	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
31.953	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
31.510	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
31.507	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
31.168	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
31.064	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
30.609	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
30.510	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
30.227	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
30.167	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
30.101	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
29.778	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
29.714	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
29.648	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
29.460	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
29.145	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
29.126	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
28.868	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
28.811	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
28.736	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
27.574	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
27.510	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
27.284	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
26.403	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
26.243	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
25.849	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
25.474	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
25.304	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
25.057	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
24.550	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
24.365	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
24.289	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
24.190	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
23.844	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
23.713	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
23.314	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
23.282	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
22.659	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
22.029	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
21.525	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
21.351	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
21.015	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
20.924	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
20.728	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
20.418	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
20.230	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
19.748	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
19.704	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
19.596	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
19.405	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
19.384	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
18.802	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
18.625	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
18.432	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
18.351	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
17.926	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
17.616	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
17.472	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
17.162	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
16.855	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
16.432	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
16.083	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
15.508	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
15.480	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
15.224	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
14.860	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
14.547	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
14.350	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
14.302	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
14.290	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
13.540	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
13.430	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
13.045	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
12.701	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
12.696	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
12.479	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
12.435	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
12.419	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
11.954	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
11.639	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
10.947	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
10.922	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
10.591	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
10.055	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
9.569	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
9.305	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
9.285	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
9.237	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
9.217	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
9.187	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
8.940	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
8.913	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
8.908	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
8.640	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
8.367	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
8.107	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
8.018	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
7.787	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
7.772	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
7.236	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
6.637	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
6.388	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
6.324	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
6.142	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
5.619	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
5.561	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
5.464	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
5.400	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
5.228	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
4.897	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
4.726	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
4.710	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
4.565	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
3.723	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
3.374	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
3.084	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
2.845	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
2.448	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
2.402	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
2.014	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
1.228	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
1.131	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
0.799	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
0.743	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
0.639	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
0.501	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
0.433	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
0.186	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
-	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-0.633	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-1.217	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-2.217	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-2.962	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
-3.337	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
-3.429	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
-5.345	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-6.307	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-7.857	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
-8.869	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-9.777	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
-10.315	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-10.935	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
-11.358	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-12.011	Which value will Metaculus least predict?	Continuous
-13.168	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-13.507	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
-15.926	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
-16.288	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-17.652	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
-20.033	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-23.657	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
-23.875	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-23.934	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
-24.233	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
-30.130	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
-42.577	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-43.342	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-44.271	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-49.241	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-69.681	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-71.273	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-84.421	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-106.557	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-167.657	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary