53.862 | What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? | Continuous |
44.369 | Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022? | Binary |
36.802 | How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? | Continuous |
30.989 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? | Binary |
29.369 | What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021? | Continuous |
28.382 | Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? | Binary |
27.335 | On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged? | Binary |
26.507 | Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? | Binary |
23.701 | When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? | Continuous |
22.674 | Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? | Binary |
22.589 | Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? | Binary |
21.717 | Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? | Binary |
21.431 | What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
18.582 | Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021? | Binary |
13.086 | Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? | Binary |
12.893 | How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021? | Continuous |
11.020 | Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? | Binary |
8.077 | Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
7.896 | How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021? | Continuous |
5.961 | Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom? | Binary |
5.919 | For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? | Continuous |
5.224 | What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD? | Continuous |
5.005 | What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021? | Continuous |
4.626 | What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza? | Continuous |
3.245 | Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? | Binary |
3.184 | When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available? | Continuous |
2.526 | Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? | Binary |
1.620 | Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? | Binary |
0.786 | What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021? | Continuous |
0.356 | Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars? | Binary |
0.221 | What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021? | Continuous |
-1.079 | Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019? | Binary |
-2.034 | Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges? | Binary |
-2.504 | Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD? | Binary |
-13.145 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? | Binary |