will_aldred

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

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5065	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
127.745	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
110.856	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
99.070	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
98.348	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
97.152	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
95.633	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
93.117	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
93.008	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
92.787	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
91.229	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
88.710	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
88.265	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
85.118	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
84.326	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
83.291	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
82.994	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
80.997	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
79.896	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
79.572	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
78.004	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
71.250	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
70.855	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
70.724	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
70.492	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
70.035	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
69.148	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
67.767	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
67.145	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
66.614	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
66.400	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
65.351	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
65.206	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
64.560	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
64.469	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
64.413	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
64.161	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
63.359	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
62.523	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
62.161	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
61.373	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
61.033	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
59.611	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
57.463	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
56.986	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
56.571	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
55.973	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
54.503	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
53.840	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
53.674	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
53.434	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
50.372	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
49.626	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
45.563	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
45.203	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
45.167	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
44.738	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
44.713	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
44.182	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
42.928	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
41.802	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
41.724	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
41.091	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
39.831	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
39.454	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
39.307	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
38.358	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
37.684	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
37.446	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
36.865	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
35.780	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
35.051	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
34.062	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
33.311	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
32.647	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
32.480	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
32.076	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
32.016	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
31.530	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
31.186	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
31.154	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
31.153	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
30.548	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
30.122	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
29.044	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
28.809	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
28.735	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
28.542	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
27.745	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
26.766	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
25.102	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
25.033	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
24.886	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
24.880	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
24.496	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
23.874	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
23.849	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
23.426	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
23.302	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
23.010	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
23.009	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
21.130	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
21.018	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
20.428	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
19.953	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
19.594	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
18.543	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
18.516	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
18.330	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
18.190	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
17.783	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
17.718	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
16.982	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
16.589	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
15.856	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
15.463	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
14.212	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
13.837	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
13.438	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
13.384	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
12.893	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
12.114	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
11.825	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
10.964	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
8.166	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
7.884	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
7.414	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
7.287	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
7.204	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
7.198	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
5.884	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
5.835	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
5.533	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
5.050	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
4.933	When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?	Continuous
4.920	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
4.509	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
3.998	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
3.886	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
2.488	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
1.961	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
1.743	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
1.542	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
0.921	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
0.765	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
-0.493	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
-1.960	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-2.364	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
-2.857	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-3.501	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
-3.913	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-4.004	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-4.396	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
-11.123	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-11.375	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-11.896	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-12.276	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-22.270	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
-24.956	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-26.201	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-26.917	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-31.804	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-34.878	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-39.072	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-45.581	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-46.509	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-48.056	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-55.099	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
-65.143	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-83.992	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-91.297	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-116.280	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary