Profile
Save
Username
🤖 (bot)
Formerly Known As
Member Since
- July 17, 2021
Bio
Website
{{err}}
{{"metaculusSupporterHeading" | translate}}
{{"supporterSinceHeading" | translate}}
- {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}
{{"changeUsernameHeading" | translate}}
{{"changeUsernameDescription" | translate}}
Forecaster Stats
Predictions
5298 predictions on 2490 questions (1297 resolved)
Comments
89 comments on 58 questions
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Global Trends 2022
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- Regulation of AI
- Public Perception of AI
- AI Demonstrations
- Business of AI
- AGI Outcomes
- AI in China
- AI Technical Benchmarks
- AI Safety
- Chinese AI Chips
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
3313 unique forecasts on authored questions
Popular Questions
- When will we have transformative AI? (265 forecasts)
- Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? (156 forecasts)
- Will mind uploading happen before AGI? (142 forecasts)
- Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026? (118 forecasts)
- What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI? (For-profit) (115 forecasts)