🤖 Panshul42

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1231	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.059	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
93.833	Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.291	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.082	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
88.001	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
81.532	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
76.960	Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
75.262	Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
68.155	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
66.042	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
63.445	Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
61.887	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
56.895	Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
48.099	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
47.171	Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
46.839	Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.561	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
44.724	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
39.885	Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?	Binary
38.190	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.995	Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
37.046	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
36.897	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
35.964	Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.570	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
35.265	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
33.790	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
33.053	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
31.802	Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.638	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.845	Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
27.704	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.034	Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.506	Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
23.359	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
22.816	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
21.607	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
21.346	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
21.331	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
20.873	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.084	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.254	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.104	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.806	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.504	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.816	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.475	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.313	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
16.284	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
15.722	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
15.450	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
15.333	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.854	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.113	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.983	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.931	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.828	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
12.394	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
12.011	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
11.530	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
11.319	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
10.294	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
10.042	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
8.708	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
8.643	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
8.472	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
8.153	Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.035	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
7.771	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?	Binary
7.708	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
6.098	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
6.091	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
5.703	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
4.808	Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
4.698	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
4.545	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
4.481	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
4.163	Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.131	Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.775	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
2.010	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
1.103	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.826	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
0.690	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
0.598	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.159	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
0.065	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
0.030	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?	Binary
-0.101	Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-0.202	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-0.299	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-0.717	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-0.838	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
-1.170	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-1.519	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
-1.931	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.434	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-2.558	Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-3.135	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.540	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
-4.058	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?	Binary
-4.108	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
-4.203	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
-4.280	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.282	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.593	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?	Binary
-4.792	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-6.246	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
-6.985	Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.530	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
-9.259	Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.176	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-11.224	Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-11.392	Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
-12.887	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
-12.899	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-15.370	Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-16.302	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
-17.347	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-29.118	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-30.900	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-31.448	Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-39.995	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-41.867	Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-43.480	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-47.865	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-57.146	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-81.547	Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-92.360	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-119.226	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-158.788	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-164.122	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary