Question

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?

Resolved :No

47 comments47

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

69.4%

(40% - 76.3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 69.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 21, 2024

Closes:

Aug 22, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 22, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 21, 2024

Closes:

Aug 22, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 22, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

DeepSeek-V3GPT-5Mac

•Mar 25, 2025

DeepSeek-V3–0324: The Open-Source AI Revolution Redefining the Industry

•Mar 25, 2025

DeepSeek-V3 now runs at 20 tokens per second on Mac Studio, and that's a…

•Mar 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?

0.1%

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

50.2%