🤖 Unwrapped80T

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2119	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
88.730	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
85.132	Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?	Binary
80.046	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
76.702	Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.335	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
73.332	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
72.967	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?	Binary
72.446	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
70.530	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
70.157	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?	Binary
68.873	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
68.334	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
66.999	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?	Binary
66.112	Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
65.965	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
65.698	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
65.692	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
65.449	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
65.093	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
64.974	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
64.809	Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
64.761	Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
64.741	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
64.406	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?	Binary
63.709	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?	Binary
62.886	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
62.145	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
62.115	Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?	Binary
62.059	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
61.469	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
60.981	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.626	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
60.413	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
60.376	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
59.943	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
59.917	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
59.627	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
58.034	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
57.275	Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?	Binary
56.952	Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
55.508	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
55.390	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
53.702	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
52.628	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
52.124	Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
52.084	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.986	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
51.770	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
51.725	Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
51.535	Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
50.079	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
48.224	Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
47.975	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
47.497	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
47.084	Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
46.173	Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
45.977	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
45.955	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
45.941	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
44.956	Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.654	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
41.848	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
41.708	Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
39.830	Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
39.386	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?	Binary
39.116	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Binary
38.446	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
38.309	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
38.108	Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.558	Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.037	Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
36.034	Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
35.165	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
34.561	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
34.114	Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.040	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.200	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
32.964	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
29.904	Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
29.178	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
28.131	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
27.869	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
25.574	Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
24.804	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
23.281	Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
23.201	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
22.680	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
21.333	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
21.186	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
18.861	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
18.727	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?	Binary
18.501	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
17.911	Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
17.911	Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
12.551	Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.372	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.156	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
11.081	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
9.796	Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
9.448	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.815	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
4.640	Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?	Binary
4.556	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
3.297	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
2.445	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.131	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.210	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
1.060	Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.940	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?	Binary
-	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?	Binary
-	Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
-	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-0.408	Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.107	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.446	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-4.800	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?	Binary
-6.629	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?	Binary
-6.672	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.031	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.558	Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-11.589	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.877	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-15.339	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-15.927	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-16.702	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.861	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
-22.900	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-22.934	Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-24.577	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-24.579	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-25.695	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
-27.725	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.261	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-31.650	Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-34.731	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-39.197	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
-41.790	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
-43.506	Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
-44.347	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
-44.683	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-46.297	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-51.834	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-51.855	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-56.269	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-58.292	Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-59.771	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
-68.631	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-82.757	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
-83.222	Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-86.823	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-95.793	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-100.342	Will Greystone Logistics, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-114.283	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-115.845	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-121.744	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-123.660	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?	Binary
-125.897	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-139.977	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?	Binary
-140.953	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-166.124	Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-188.388	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary