moons R us

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.615	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
51.003	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
50.270	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
47.293	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
27.328	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
17.723	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
15.536	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
15.113	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
14.821	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
11.336	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
9.603	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
9.144	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
8.642	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
5.439	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
4.252	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
3.028	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
2.907	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
1.947	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
0.435	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
0.337	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
0.306	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
-0.007	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
-0.020	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
-0.082	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
-1.205	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
-1.430	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
-1.461	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-1.840	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
-2.247	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
-2.440	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
-2.858	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
-3.265	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
-3.995	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
-5.275	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
-5.693	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
-8.172	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
-8.194	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
-10.074	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
-13.600	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary