traviswfisher

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

13.46	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
92.859	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
58.323	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
53.506	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
38.699	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
33.750	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
32.056	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
30.652	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
29.531	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
28.326	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
26.977	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
25.783	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
25.669	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
21.841	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
21.178	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
19.456	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
15.660	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
15.171	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
15.076	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
13.933	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
13.090	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
12.321	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
9.342	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
8.718	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
8.101	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
6.346	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
1.752	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
0.639	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
0.375	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
0.347	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
0.094	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
-2.015	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
-4.862	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
-6.855	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
-12.440	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-41.274	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
-53.631	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary