traviswfisher

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.606	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
123.492	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
108.171	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
80.389	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
61.498	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
61.492	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
60.998	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
56.783	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
53.754	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
52.388	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
50.555	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
45.954	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
41.203	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
39.262	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
38.507	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
36.831	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
35.755	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
32.320	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
31.913	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
30.912	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
30.743	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
30.158	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
27.485	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
27.251	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
27.250	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
27.155	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
26.682	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
26.379	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
25.079	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
23.787	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
23.662	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
23.611	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
23.577	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
22.067	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
21.920	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
21.856	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
21.814	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
21.218	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
21.045	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
20.783	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
19.981	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
19.972	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
19.456	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
19.049	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
18.778	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
18.495	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
18.237	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
18.129	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
17.921	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
17.616	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
17.542	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
17.341	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
17.130	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
16.845	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
16.702	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
16.292	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
15.294	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
15.241	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
15.055	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
14.705	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
14.468	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
14.467	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
14.172	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
13.939	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
13.929	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
13.829	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
13.825	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
13.701	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
13.653	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
13.526	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
13.454	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
13.406	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
13.320	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
12.918	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
12.570	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
12.370	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
12.280	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
12.063	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
11.913	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
11.885	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
11.680	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
11.157	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
11.094	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
10.822	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
10.466	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
10.455	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
10.360	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
10.299	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
10.258	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
10.010	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
9.957	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
9.655	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
9.485	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
9.280	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
9.212	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
9.011	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
8.724	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
8.671	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
8.503	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
8.481	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
8.443	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
8.345	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
8.287	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
8.171	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
8.055	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
8.037	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
8.026	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
7.869	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
7.682	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
7.660	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
7.650	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
7.373	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
7.331	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
7.312	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
7.167	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
6.660	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
6.593	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
6.551	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
6.127	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
5.998	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
5.913	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
5.827	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
5.622	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
5.372	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
5.335	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
5.291	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
5.255	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
5.193	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
5.038	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
4.978	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
4.806	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
4.751	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
4.695	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
4.596	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
4.514	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
4.500	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
4.480	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
4.318	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
4.250	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
4.189	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
4.048	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
3.926	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
3.884	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
3.780	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
3.696	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
3.445	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
3.391	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
3.328	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
3.263	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
3.223	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
3.127	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
3.118	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
3.037	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
2.849	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
2.762	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
2.524	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
2.489	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
2.478	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
2.263	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
2.254	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
1.920	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
1.906	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
1.817	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
1.724	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
1.631	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.618	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
1.553	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
1.548	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
1.547	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
1.500	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
1.436	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
1.433	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
1.394	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
1.367	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
1.334	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
1.254	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
0.924	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
0.901	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
0.850	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
0.807	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
0.805	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
0.544	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
0.540	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
0.482	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.459	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
0.438	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
0.406	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
0.255	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.164	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
0.067	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
0.033	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
0.027	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
-0.000	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-0.134	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
-0.140	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
-0.237	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-0.295	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-0.359	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
-0.419	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
-0.928	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
-1.010	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
-1.528	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-2.095	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
-2.962	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-3.181	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-4.359	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
-5.841	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
-6.568	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-7.055	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-10.664	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
-10.692	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-10.917	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-12.299	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-12.753	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
-13.373	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-13.441	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
-15.741	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-15.934	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-16.376	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
-16.506	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
-20.387	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
-20.452	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
-21.741	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-24.035	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-24.882	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-34.421	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-39.216	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-41.085	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
-53.294	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
-53.809	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
-53.865	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-53.959	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-58.479	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-64.958	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-70.040	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-84.818	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous