bzial

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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6.788		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
138.413	99.2%	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
70.226	99.8%	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
66.032	99.5%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
62.674	78.2%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
62.147	100.0%	Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?	Binary
59.557	95.0%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
54.841	99.9%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
51.411	99.9%	Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?	Binary
48.945	100.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
45.921	99.5%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
44.661	78.0%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
43.139	99.6%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
41.273	98.5%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
41.115	99.7%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
39.218	86.4%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
38.500	99.9%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
35.064	99.1%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
34.968	95.4%	by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?	Binary
33.969	44.2%	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
33.614	98.5%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
31.935	100.0%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
30.830	99.4%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
30.376	99.8%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
30.309	99.9%	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
29.853	99.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
29.738	40.4%	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
28.875	51.6%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
28.734	99.3%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
28.544	43.4%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
28.382	99.8%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
26.781	99.3%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
26.773	97.4%	Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?	Binary
26.126	97.2%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
25.913	98.3%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
25.473	100.0%	To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?	Binary
25.190	99.8%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
24.341	99.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
24.151	96.6%	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
23.963	77.9%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
22.802	61.8%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
22.707	100.0%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
22.287	100.0%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.923	100.0%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
20.683	96.6%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
20.535	99.8%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
20.166	57.9%	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
19.078	98.8%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
18.760	73.9%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
17.255	99.9%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
16.539	99.9%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
15.763	99.6%	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
15.309	77.2%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
14.969	99.9%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
14.912	100.0%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
14.854	94.4%	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
14.842	99.9%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
14.019	37.1%	50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?	Binary
13.784	100.0%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
13.723	98.8%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
13.636	99.1%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
13.369	54.1%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
12.358	99.2%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
12.174	98.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
11.956	99.1%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
11.898	94.1%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
11.845	100.0%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
11.453	99.8%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
11.248	99.9%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
10.669	99.9%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
10.669	99.8%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
10.484	13.3%	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
10.471	92.6%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
10.337	97.0%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
10.275	54.8%	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
10.032	97.2%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
9.961	68.8%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
9.548	23.5%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
9.414	99.9%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
9.051	99.6%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
8.782	100.0%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
8.466	99.7%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
8.459	99.7%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
8.422	34.0%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
8.311	13.7%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
8.182	97.6%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
8.108	96.8%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
8.040	99.8%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
7.748	99.9%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
7.391	45.7%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
6.784	99.4%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
6.782	99.7%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
6.149	86.8%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
5.760	24.8%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
5.530	99.2%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
5.421	13.8%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
5.306	99.7%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
5.174	17.6%	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
4.406	28.4%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
4.340	10.6%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
4.157	99.9%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
4.109	98.6%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
3.455	99.7%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
3.043	99.5%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
2.687	61.2%	Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?	Binary
2.525	8.7%	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
2.263	3.9%	Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?	Binary
1.611	35.5%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
1.462	3.1%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.930	99.9%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
0.855	100.0%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
-0.206	100.0%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
-0.577	22.4%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-2.092	99.6%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-3.755	99.4%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-4.121	14.2%	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-4.722	25.2%	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
-5.650	99.8%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
-5.743	16.0%	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
-8.660	98.8%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
-10.122	100.0%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
-12.573	99.9%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
-13.078	99.8%	Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
-15.130	99.4%	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
-15.184	99.5%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-17.384	99.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
-18.360	100.0%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
-19.566	93.0%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-25.800	99.6%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
-28.591	68.6%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-29.308	99.8%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-41.124	99.8%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
-42.818	99.6%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-43.232	99.8%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
-45.886	100.0%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-59.243	97.5%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-89.783	99.7%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
-104.935	94.7%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
-107.384	98.5%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-116.753	93.3%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-136.922	100.0%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-137.616	99.3%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-162.355	99.8%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
-165.140	98.4%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary