bzial

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.43	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
40.876	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
40.240	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
34.025	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
32.186	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
32.136	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
30.784	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
23.037	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
21.443	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
20.998	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
19.853	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
19.456	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
19.221	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
17.936	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
16.904	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
16.327	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
15.708	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
14.471	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
14.119	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
9.803	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
9.525	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
8.889	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
8.529	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
8.166	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
8.111	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
7.717	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
5.125	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
3.709	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
2.530	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
1.028	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
0.608	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
0.155	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
0.100	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
-0.087	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
-3.722	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
-5.769	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
-76.907	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary