hzds

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

11.48	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
65.127	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
51.057	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
40.807	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
40.534	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
36.059	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
35.832	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
30.386	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
25.909	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
24.535	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
21.263	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
20.904	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
20.085	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
18.267	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
17.974	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
17.023	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
13.515	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
13.398	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
12.984	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
12.074	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
10.468	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
10.056	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
8.795	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
6.173	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
3.704	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
3.525	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
2.055	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
1.797	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
1.555	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
1.133	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
0.672	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
0.571	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-0.005	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
-0.276	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
-0.514	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-2.938	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
-16.144	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
-26.288	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-26.720	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
-36.198	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary