DanielFilan

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.65		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
92.737	99.3%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
90.784	100.0%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
59.574	98.9%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
49.009	67.5%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
47.795	99.9%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
46.262	99.9%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
46.037	66.9%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
45.907	90.7%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
42.773	99.6%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
41.995	97.9%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
37.819	37.3%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
36.015	96.4%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
35.220	67.2%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
29.904	77.7%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
28.896	99.7%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
28.616	100.0%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
28.471	70.7%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
26.903	98.9%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
26.625	97.5%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
24.463	98.5%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
24.122	100.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
23.786	99.3%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
23.345	84.0%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
23.340	99.9%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.206	99.8%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
20.019	49.7%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
19.592	98.2%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
19.514	91.7%	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
19.504	91.9%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
19.295	58.7%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
18.609	95.8%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
18.064	98.1%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
17.670	76.9%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
17.598	20.1%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
17.086	98.4%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
16.296	77.1%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
16.067	96.5%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
15.896	66.0%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
15.259	96.4%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
14.723	80.2%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
13.900	74.4%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
13.834	99.9%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
13.047	84.3%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
13.019	99.8%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
10.932	89.2%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
10.926	99.6%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
10.903	99.8%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
9.810	74.4%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
8.996	90.5%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
8.638	28.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
8.233	28.8%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
8.168	99.9%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
7.824	99.0%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
7.533	54.1%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
7.449	6.1%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
5.862	23.5%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
5.790	92.1%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
5.543	98.4%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
4.581	98.1%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
4.363	19.6%	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
4.091	100.0%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
3.832	65.2%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
3.598	14.4%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
3.339	18.1%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
3.303	99.9%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
2.788	43.3%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
2.251	65.7%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
2.095	8.6%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
1.564	2.8%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.518	80.1%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
1.483	10.3%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
1.162	99.8%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
1.020	95.8%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
0.322	92.9%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
0.313	84.6%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
0.170	99.7%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
0.127	1.2%	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
0.105	0.2%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
-0.055	0.3%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-0.061	32.7%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
-0.268	21.6%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
-0.333	99.3%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-0.679	99.7%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-1.622	99.9%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
-1.628	12.2%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-1.974	53.8%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
-2.240	100.0%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-2.740	14.8%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
-2.963	7.4%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-3.204	100.0%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
-4.133	48.2%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
-5.122	95.0%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-5.488	99.6%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-6.004	35.7%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
-7.254	50.0%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-8.014	99.6%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
-10.006	100.0%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
-10.356	99.6%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
-15.377	100.0%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
-19.987	99.8%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
-20.285	99.9%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-35.653	99.9%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-49.423	93.1%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-54.204	100.0%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
-58.716	98.2%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-84.902	98.4%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
-108.091	99.9%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous